James Oyugi Odeck

• Odeck, James Oyugi & Aasness, Marie Aarestrup (2024). What are the determinants of road users' experiences with congestion : econometric assessment using ordered response models. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 104(May), p. 1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2024.101423. Show summary

  We investigate factors that determine road users' experiences with congestion based on a questionnaire survey conducted in the Oslo area of Norway. The rationale is to add more knowledge on factors that determine users' experience with congestion. Furthermore, we use a succinct econometric framework to assess the data. We find that the following factors influence road users' experiences with congestion: (1) whether they experienced congestion on their reference trip; (2) how often road users undertake trips during congestion; (3) the extent to which road users had potential alternative modes of transport other than car use; (4) education; (5) whether respondents had time commitments at their destinations; (6) travel time used during their journey; (7) how often they experience congestion as a problem during their journey; (8) when participants begin to experience discomfort with congestion; and (9) age. The direction of these factors' impact on experience is explained in the results section. For example, those who did not experience congestion on their previous trip are 26 percentage points more likely to report a negative experience with congestion than those who did. The results provide new insight into the factors that determine road users' experience with congestion. Finally, we warn that one should not be indifferent regarding the logit models used, as the results can be quite different.

• Mirhosseini, Ali Foroutan; Pitera, Kelly Ann & Odeck, James Oyugi (2023). Ex-post evaluation of project efficiency and effectiveness within a Norwegian highway project. Case Studies on Transport Policy. ISSN 2213-624X. 13. doi: 10.1016/j.cstp.2023.101067.
• Aasness, Marie Aarestrup & Odeck, James Oyugi (2023). Road users' attitudes towards transforming a flat rate cordon toll to a congestion charging system : the case of Oslo, Norway. Research in Transportation Business and Management (RTBM). ISSN 2210-5395. 50(October). doi: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2023.100971. Show summary

  The well-known Oslo cordon toll ring was transformed into a congestion charging scheme in 2017. The transformation implied higher toll rates during rush hours and lower rates during nonrush hours, and battery-driven electric vehicles (BEVs) were exempted from paying tolls as a means of enhancing the uptake of BEVs. This paper studies road users' attitudes towards the transformation that took place. The rationale is that studies examining road users' attitudes towards such transformations are lacking in the transportation literature. We use the results of a survey conducted a month after the transformation, and a question was added regarding users' attitudes towards the transformation. The dataset consists of 2005 responses. We use both descriptive statistics and logit-based regression analyses to assess the data. The results reveal that the average road user has a negative attitude towards the transformation, most likely because the transformation increased the travel cost for the average user. Our results add value to the literature and for researchers and policymakers who may want to consider similar transformations, and groups of users who need to be convinced of the usefulness of congestion charging are identified. Keywords: users attitudes, road financing, congestion charging, transformation, Oslo cordon toll

• Aasness, Marie Aarestrup & Odeck, James Oyugi (2023). Road users’ attitudes towards electric vehicle incentives : empirical evidence from Oslo in 2014–2020. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 97(March), p. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2023.101262. Show summary

  This paper examines participant attitudes towards battery electric vehicle (BEV) incentives. Our case study was conducted in the greater Oslo area. Oslo has ranked as the world capital of BEV usage since 2014. The Norwegian government currently leads the comprehensive use of BEV incentives to decarbonize road transport. The data set is from a questionnaire survey conducted annually between 2014 and 2020. A total of 6363 individuals divided equally into annual random samples were asked to express their attitudes towards the different BEV incentives in place in each year. Participants were aged 18 or older and were living in the larger Oslo area. Professional data collection companies used computer-assisted telephone interviews to conduct the survey. Generalized structural equation modelling (GSEM) was used to analyse the data. The sample was 49% women and 51% men, with a mean age of 51 years, ranging from 18 to 99 years old. People in greater Oslo increasingly disagree each year with beneficial BEV incentives such as toll exemptions, access to bus lanes without passengers and free public parking. However, internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) users are more likely to disagree than BEV users. The results provide new knowledge about attitudes towards BEV incentives from a longitudinal perspective. Keywords: electric vehicle incentives, user attitudes, longitudinal perspective

• Foroutan Mirhosseini, Seyedali; Pitera, Kelly; Odeck, James & Welde, Morten (2022). Sustainable Project Management: Reducing the Risk of Cost Inaccuracy Using a PLS-SEM Approach. Sustainability. ISSN 2071-1050. 14(2). doi: 10.3390/su14020960. Full text in Research Archive
• Høyem, Harald Støen & Odeck, James (2021). Assessing the socially optimal capacity at a selection of Norwegian car ferry crossings. Case Studies on Transport Policy. ISSN 2213-624X. 10(1), p. 41–56. doi: 10.1016/j.cstp.2021.10.008.
• Høyem, Harald Støen & Odeck, James (2020). Optimal public transit frequency under stochastic demand and fixed vehicle size : application in the Norwegian car ferry sector. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 82(October), p. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100878. Show summary

  When capacity constraints are present in public transportation services, some travelers may not be able to board the first vessel they desire. Consequently, a type of waiting time cost is introduced, as passengers must wait for (at least) another full headway before the next service arrives. This waiting time has, to a lesser extent, been accounted for in the literature focusing on the optimal frequency of departures in transport. Not including this waiting time cost may lead to an underestimation of the optimal departure frequency. In this paper, we develop a novel optimization framework to incorporate the effect of this waiting time when there is a limited vessel capacity. Two different formulations are applied, which yield consistent results. Our policy recommendation is clear: Both the theoretical and empirical findings suggests that a “third” waiting time component of not being able to board the first vessel is highly relevant for decision-makers when vessel size constraints exists. Not including the extra waiting time costs stemming from capacity constraints leads to starkly different optimal service levels, which clearly indicates the relevance of our findings for practical policy making. Keywords: transport sector, car ferry services, optimization, optimal frequency

• Odeck, James & Høyem, Harald Støen (2020). The impact of competitive tendering on operational costs and market concentration in public transport : the Norwegian car ferry services. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 90(December), p. 1–12. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2020.100883. Show summary

  The literature on how competitive tendering (CT) affects the operational costs of transportation services has been inconclusive; some concluded that it reduces operational costs, while others maintained that it increases or does not affect operational costs. We add to the literature by assessing the impact of CT on the operational costs of car ferry services in the case of Norway. Note the similarity with public transport: car ferries transport vehicles from one road point to another, like public transport does with passengers. Furthermore, we study the impact of CT on market concentration. The data comprises 53 ferry links across 8 years, yielding 424 observations. The results reveal that: (i) implementation of CT significantly lowered operational costs; and (ii) market concentration increased. These findings suggest that CT might not lead to free competition in the long run but rather to monopolistic/duopolistic tendencies, contrary to its intentions. We urge policymakers to reconsider CT carefully because its results could be counter to intentions. Keywords: Competitive tendering (CT); Transport sector; Car ferry services; Cost-efficiency; Panel data.

• Odeck, James & Schøyen, Halvor (2020). Productivity and convergence in Norwegian container seaports: An SFA-based Malmquist productivity index approach. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 137(July), p. 222–239. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.05.001. Show summary

  This paper examines the productivity of Norwegian container seaports and the extent to which the initially less productive seaports are converging/diverging in productivity in relation to the initially more productive seaports. The rationale of the paper is that productivity assessment of Norwegian seaports is scarce in the literature, and studies of convergence/divergence in container seaports are missing in the literature on transportation. The methodology used is the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA)-based Malmquist productivity index () to assess productivity. To infer productivity convergence/divergence over the years, Beta (Β) and Sigma (Γ) types of convergence/divergence are used. The data used are for the 2002–2014 period and include comparable container seaports from the Nordic countries and the UK to increase the discriminatory power in the analyses and to compare the Norwegian container seaports with their peers. The results attest that (i) there has been annual average total productivity improvement across seaports of approximately 9.7%, (ii) the productivity improvement observed has been due to improvement in pure efficiency change of approximately 11% and scale efficiency improvement of approximately 3.2% and a decrease in technical change of approximately 3.2% annually, (iii) Norwegian seaports are also experiencing productivity improvement and are best performers with regard to scale efficiency change, and (iv) there is an indication of convergence among seaports with respect to all productivity indices, suggesting that seaports with initially lower productivity indices progress faster than those with initially higher indices. A major conclusion is that the overall productivity of seaports has improved, and the productivity growth rates have converged. Keywords: container seaports, Malmquist productivity indices, convergences, Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA)

• Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind & Odeck, James (2019). The traffic effects of fixed links: Short and long-run forecast accuracy. Transportation Research Procedia. ISSN 2352-1465. 42, p. 64–74. doi: 10.1016/j.trpro.2019.12.007. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Economic and financial appraisals of road projects depend on reliable traffic forecasts, and there is a need for knowledge of how traffic reacts to changes in the transport network. In the article, the authors study the effects on traffic of fixed links constructed in Norway and the extent to which planners have been able to forecast those effects with an acceptable degree of accuracy. The main finding is a substantial underestimation of traffic in the long term. Initially, the differences between the forecast traffic and actual traffic were relatively small, but the differences increased over time. In the long term, actual traffic might be twice as high as the forecast traffic. This finding deviates substantially from findings from other countries, where overestimation of traffic on tolled, at least in the short term, seems to have been the norm.

• Odeck, James (2019). Estimating and predicting the operational costs of road tolls : an econometric assessment using panel data. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 130(December), p. 466–478. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2019.09.047. Show summary

  We develop an econometric procedure to estimate the operational costs of toll road projects. To show its usefulness for planning future tolls, we test its predictive power on out-of-the sample observations. Thus, the rationale for the paper is that previous studies have utilized less succinct econometric frameworks to derive factors that significantly explain the operational costs of toll roads and have provided little evidence regarding the predictive power of the models used. Panel data on 33 Norwegian toll road projects observed during the period 2011–2015 are used for the purpose, resulting in a total of 165 observations. The results reveal the following: (i) Toll operations are heterogeneous, so that individual characteristics matter; ceteris paribus, this should be accounted for when estimating operational costs. (ii) The average operational cost per vehicle (AVC) processed at tolls is approximately 4 NOK (≈ US$ 0.44). (iii) The volume of vehicle throughput reduces operational costs, demonstrating the existence of scale economies; the number of lanes served increases operational costs; the use of an Open Road Toll (ORT) charging system reduces operational costs; the tendering of toll collections reduces operational costs; and the share of vehicles that use On Board Units (OBU) reduces operational costs. It is shown that the econometric model developed here has high predictive power and can be used to predict the operational costs of future tolls. These results reaffirm the results of some earlier studies but serve to warn that one should not be indifferent to the framework of analysis used, as the results may not be statistically significant and robust. The econometric framework developed here is an advance due to its predictive power. Keywords: road tolls, estimating operational cost, predictions, econometrics, Norway

• Odeck, James Oyugi & Kjerkreit, Anne (2019). The accuracy of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) in transportation : an ex-post evaluation of road projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 120(February), p. 277–294. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2018.12.023. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Ex-post evaluations of benefit-cost analyses (BCAs) of transportation projects are scarce in the literature. If conducted frequently, they could reveal the extent to which objectives are achieved and may give inputs that can improve the quality of ex-ante BCAs. We first explain the usefulness of ex-post BCA evaluations of transportation projects, depending on which planning phase a project is in. We then perform ex-post BCAs on 27 Norwegian road projects that have been in service for at least 5years and compare the results with the ex-ante BCAs that were presented to the decision-makers. We use two different measures of aggregating the magnitudes of accuracy; the Mean Percentage Error (MPE) and Mean Absolute Percentage (MAPE). Using MPE, we find that: (1) ex-ante BCAs underestimate the actual net present value (NPV) by 50% on average and, the NPV per dollar invested by a mere 0.14% points on average; (2) the traffic level and traffic growth rates areoften underestimated ex-ante, leading to an underestimation of the benefits and; (3) construction costs are underestimated by 5% on average, which is too small to offset the observed underestimation of benefits. By default, MAPE shows higher values of inaccuracies implying that one should not be indifferent as to the measure used. Overall, the Norwegian exante BCAs perform fairly well. We urge that the authorities concerned must improve their traffic forecasts and construction cost estimates to assure that the ex-ante objectives are met. The upkeep of ex-ante data is essential to enable ex-post evaluation which, ceteris paribus, will enhance the transparency and credibility of BCA as an appropriate decision-making tool. Keywords: ex-post evaluation, benefit-cost analyses (BCA), road projects, Norway

• Tarimo, Michael Joesph; Wondimu, Paulos; Odeck, James; Lohne, Jardar & Lædre, Ola (2017). Sustainable roads in Serengeti National Park: - gravel roads construction and maintenance. Procedia Computer Science. ISSN 1877-0509. 121, p. 329–336. doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2017.11.045. Show summary

  All weather road Networks in protected areas are imporant to facilitate management of wildlife, routine park operations and to facilitate tourist accessibility to the attractions sites and hence improving their satisfaction. However, road construction in protected areas should be sustainable in terms of availability of quality materials within economic haulage distance and the entire construction, operation and maintenance process should have less environmental impacts like habitat fragmentation and dust pollution. Several studies have been done in protected areas concerning roads but most of them had concentrated on the ecological impacts of roads. Few studies have been done from the engineering perspective of sustainable construction and maintenance of roads. Thus, the purpose of this study is to assess the sustainability and challenges of construction and maintenance of gravel roads in protected areas. To accomplish objectives of these study four types of data were collected in Serengeti National Park (SENAPA). The data collected were from soil material test in the existing borrow pits, traffic volume counting, document study and interview with fifty (50) road stakeholder. Results show that the current poor performance of the studied road sections may be due to lack of financial and human resources, quality gravel materials and existing traffic volume. This study will contribute to the sustainable construction of road networks in protected areas through identifying possible challenges of road construction and maintenance and give the way forward for improvement. nd the entire sustainability and challenges of construction and maintenance of gravel roads in protected areas. To accomplish objectives of these study four types of data were c llected in Serengeti National Park (SENAPA). The data collected were from soil material test in the existing b rrow pits, traffic volume counting, document study and interview with fifty (50) road stakeholder. Results show that the current poor performance of the studied road sections may be due to lack of financial and human resources, quality gravel materials and existing traffic volume. This study will contribute to the sustainable construction of oad networks in protected areas through identifying possible challenges of road construction and maintenance and give the way forward for improvement.

• Odeck, James (2017). Variation in cost overruns of transportation projects : an econometric meta-regression analysis of studies reported in the literature. Transportation. ISSN 0049-4488. 46(4), p. 1345–1368. doi: 10.1007/s11116-017-9836-5. Show summary

  This paper uses an econometric meta-regression analysis framework to examine how the mean percentage cost overruns (MPCOs) of transportation projects reported in the literature vary by study specific characteristics, such as whether it is a road or rail project, the world region where the study was conducted; and the year of publication of the study. The motivation of the study is that there are no other studies in the literature on MPCOs of transportation projects using meta-regression analysis; a method well respected in other fields for summarizing findings from different studies. The data used comprise 127 data points retrieved from 48 studies from across the continents. The results show that (1) cost overruns rather than underruns are prevalent across all types of studies, and the typical cost overrun is, on average, 34% regardless of the transportation infrastructure under consideration; (2) recent studies show significantly lower MPCOs as compared to earlier studies; (3) published studies in scientific journals or conference proceedings show higher MPCOs than unpublished reports; (4) in comparison with Asian studies and those of the rest of the world, European and North American studies show significantly lower MPCOs, but Australian studies are not significantly different; (5) road projects show significantly lower MPCOs than rail projects regardless of the region of study; and (6) European and North American roads show higher MPCOs than rails in Asia and the rest of the world. We conclude that the magnitudes of MPCO results from individual studies should not be generalized as the study specific characteristics matter. Insights offered by this study can, therefore, serve as a reference when reporting results from individual studies. Keywords: mean cost overruns (MPCO), transportation projects, meta-regression analysis, random-effects model

• Tveter, Eivind; Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2017). Do fixed links affect settlement patterns : a synthetic control approach. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 63, p. 59–72. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2017.07.002. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper evaluates the extent to which transportation projects affect settlement patterns. We consider fixed link projects because they provide a large and swift change in accessibility. We use the synthetic control method and estimate the impacts on settlement patterns for 11 fixed links projects constructed in the period from 1989 to 2008. The synthetic controls are weighted averages of control municipalities with weights chosen to replicate population trends in the pre-fixed link periods. We find clear impacts on settlement patterns for fixed links connecting islands to urban areas and on islands utilizing natural resources, although there are exceptions. In the other cases, the impacts are negligible.

• Odeck, James (2017). Government versus toll funding of road projects : a theoretical consideration with an ex-post evaluation of implemented toll projects. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 98(April), p. 97–107. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.01.007. Show summary

  In the last three decades, there has been a tremendous increase in the number of tolled roads throughout the globe as a means of delivering road infrastructure projects. What was once considered as a public sector service and hence was financed by government funds is rapidly turning into privately provided services where road users pay for the road construction.

• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2017). Cost escalations in the front-end of projects – empirical evidence from Norwegian road projects. Transport reviews. ISSN 0144-1647. 37(5), p. 612–630. doi: 10.1080/01441647.2016.1278285. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper investigates an issue largely ignored in the transport literature on cost overruns, namely, cost increases in the early project phase, long before the decision to build is made. This is the phase of project planning that is referred to as the front-end phase in the literature. The rationale of the study is that unless cost estimates during the front-end phase are relatively accurate, the wrong projects may be selected for further development. We first argue for why it is important to address cost escalation during the front-end phase of project planning. We then use Norwegian data to demonstrate the magnitude of cost escalations during the front-end phase of projects and in comparison to the implementation phase. We find that even in a sample of projects with relatively small cost overruns as in the case of Norway, there are substantial cost increases before the formal decision to build was made. This raises the issue of whether decisions and priorities taken at the early stages of project development are based on false information and whether this may lead to the wrong project concepts being selected.

• Odeck, James & Welde, Morten (2017). The accuracy of toll road traffic forecasts : an econometric evaluation. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 101(July), p. 73–85. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.05.001. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The data for this study include 68 toll road projects where forecasts and actual out-turns were available. All projects that are included in this study were opened for traffic during 1975–2014. Transport models were made mandatory for forecasting toll traffic in 2006. The results of this study reveal the following: (i) Norwegian toll road traffic forecasts are underestimated but are close to accurate because the mean percentage error is a mere 4%. This result sharply contrasts international studies that resulted in large overestimations at more than −20%. (ii) The accuracy of forecasts has not improved since transport models became mandatory. (iii) The Norwegian toll road traffic forecasts are unbiased, which implies that they do not tend to be one-sided. (iv) Norwegian forecasts are efficient, which implies that available information is used adequately when making forecasts. Our conclusion is that the toll traffic forecasts in Norway perform fairly well compared to the forecasts of other countries. In addition, we recommend that the assessment of forecasts in the transportation sector should be based on succinct econometric frameworks; otherwise, the conclusions may lack important information regarding the bias and efficiency of the forecasts. Keywords: econometrics, toll traffic forecasts, accuracy, biasedness, efficiency, Norway

• Love, Peter; Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic; Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2017). Light rail transit cost performance: Opportunities for future proofing. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 100, p. 27–39. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2017.04.002.
• Díez Gutiérrez, María; Tørset, Trude; Skjetne, Eirik & Odeck, James (2017). Tourist traffic simulation as a protected area management tool. The case of Serengeti National Park in Tanzania. Tourism Management Perspectives. ISSN 2211-9736. 22, p. 54–63. doi: 10.1016/j.tmp.2017.01.005.
• Schøyen, Halvor & Odeck, James (2017). Comparing the productivity of Norwegian and some Nordic and UK container ports - An application of Malmquist productivity index. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics. ISSN 1756-6517. 9(2), p. 234–256. doi: 10.1504/IJSTL.2017.082526. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article measures productivity changes during 2009 2014 of the six largest Norwegian container ports against 14 similar small- and medium-sized ports in the Nordic countries and the UK. The approach used is the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based Malmquist Productivity change Index (MPI), which carries out a decomposition isolating the technical progress of the efficiency improvement. The major findings are: (i) The sampled Norwegian ports seem to perform better than their international counterparts in terms of efficiency scores; (ii) when productivity growth over time is considered, the Norwegian ports appear to be overperformers but a statistical test proves that they are not, and (iii) overall, total productivity increased by approximately 0.6% per year for all ports considered and this progress is explained more by technological improvements and less by efficiency change, which declined during the period studied. This study provides Norwegian decision makers with new information regarding the performance of Norways container port industry.

• Schøyen, Halvor & Odeck, James Oyugi (2016). Comparing the productivity of Norwegian and some Nordic and UK container ports - an application of Malmquist productivity index. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics. ISSN 1756-6517. 9(2), p. 234–256. doi: 10.1504/IJSTL.2016.10000003.
• Belay, Alemu Moges; Torp, Olav; Thodesen, Carl & Odeck, James (2016). A framework for Organizing a Resilient Cost Benefit Analysis for Construction Projects. Procedia Engineering. ISSN 1877-7058. 145, p. 1169–1176. doi: 10.1016/j.proeng.2016.04.151.
• Odeck, James & Johansen, Kjell (2016). Elasticities of fuel and traffic demand and the direct rebound effects : an econometric estimation in the case of Norway. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 83(January), p. 1–13. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.10.003. Show summary

  We estimate the elasticities of fuel and travel demand with respect to fuel prices and income in the case of Norway. Furthermore, we derive the direct rebound effects that explain the degree to which a fuel price increase is “offset” in the form of greater fuel use and/or travel due to improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency. For this purpose, we use and compare two alternative econometric approaches: the error correction model (ECM) and the dynamic model. Our initial assumption is that one should not be indifferent with respect to the approach used to derive elasticities. The data used are for the period 1980–2011. Our results indicate the following: (1) the dynamic model fits the data better than the ECM model does; (2) the estimated elasticities of fuel demand with respect to price and income are −0.26 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.36 and 0.09 in the long run. For travel demand, the respective elasticities are −0.11 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.24 and 0.13 in the long run, implying inelastic demands for fuel and travel demand; and (3) rebound effects indicate that 0.26% and 0.06% of fuel savings as a result of fuel price increase will be offset in the form of more fuel use in the short run and in the long run, respectively, if fuel efficiency increases by 1%. Our policy recommendations are that policies should not be indifferent to the methods used to derive elasticities. We contend that it is crucial to seriously consider rebound effects in policy making because basic elasticity estimates exaggerate the impact of fuel price increases. Keywords: fuel and travel demand elasticities, the rebound effect, rconometric approaches, Norway, transferability

• Kvadsheim, Nina Pereira; Wasamba, Cedric Kasongo; Helgheim, Berit Irene & Odeck, James (2015). Assessing the efficiency and productivity of passenger car sales in Norway : an application of Data Envelopment Analysis and Malmquist Productivity Indices. In Jæger, Bjørn (Eds.), NOFOMA 2015 : Post Conference Proceedings, Molde, 3-5 June 2015, Nordic Logistics Research Network. Nordic Logistics Research Network. ISSN 978-82-7962-207-9. p. 222–237. Show summary

  This study examines the efficiency and productivity of the Norwegian passenger car market. The impact of product variety i.e., the number of different variants of the same brand; on efficiency and productivity is also examined. Design/methodology/approach: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to assess efficiency and its extension to Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) to assess productivity. To infer the impact of product variety on efficiency and productivity, a truncated regression is used. Findings: On average, the Norwegian passenger car market has a great potential of improving its efficiency in sales by 40% and 65% under the assumption of variable and constant returns to scale of operation, respectively. The MPI reveals that car brands have progressed tremendously by about 38%. About 62% of the car brands studied showed productivity progress throughout the period studied. Product variety is found to impact efficiency positively and productivity negatively. Keywords: Norwegian passenger car sales, Efficiency, Productivity, Product variety.

• Aasness, Marie Aarestrup & Odeck, James (2015). The increase of electric vehicle usage in Norway—incentives and adverse effects. European Transport Research Review. ISSN 1867-0717. 7(34). doi: 10.1007/s12544-015-0182-4. Full text in Research Archive
• Eliasson, Jonas; Börjesson, Maria; Odeck, James & Welde, Morten (2015). Does Benefit–Cost Efficiency Influence Transport Investment Decisions? Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. ISSN 0022-5258. 49(3), p. 377–396.
• Odeck, James; Welde, Morten; Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas (2015). Brukes samfunnsøkonomiske analyser i prioritering av vegprosjekter? : en sammenlikning av Norge og Sverige. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 129(3), p. 47–58.
• Odeck, James; Welde, Morten & Volden, Gro Holst (2015). The impact of external quality assurance of costs estimates on cost overruns: Empirical evidence from the norwegian road sector. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. ISSN 1567-7133. 15(3), p. 286–303. doi: 10.1080/01441647.2016.1278285. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects are prevalent and have been well documented in the literature; see, for instance, Flyvbjerg et al. (2003), Odeck (2004 and 2014) and Cantarelli et al. (2010). Governments may therefore exert efforts to reduce overruns by implementing strategies such as quality assurance of cost estimates, whereby external consultants are engaged to assure the accuracy of estimates. However, the literature has to a lesser extent provided evidence on what governments do to combat overruns and whether those efforts work in practice. This paper provides such evidence for the case of Norway, where the government implemented a quality assurance regime for cost estimates above 500 million NOK in the early 2000. Apart from explaining the Norwegian quality assurance regime, the paper uses statistical inferences to compare the magnitudes of cost overruns in the pre-and post- quality assurance periods. The statistically significant derived results are as follows: (i) quality assurance has led to a reduction in cost overruns; (ii) quality assurance has not, however, led to improved accuracy of the estimates provided by the authorities – rather, it has led to systematic overestimation by the authorities; and (iii) external consultants are more accurate than the authorities. We conclude that the quality assurance regime is achieving the objectives of reducing cost overruns and that similar regimes should be considered for smaller projects where overruns have been shown to be very large.

• Börjesson, Maria; Eliasson, Jonas; Odeck, James & Welde, Morten (2014). Spelar samhällsekonomisk lönsamhet någon roll för infrastrukturbeslut? En jämförelse mellan Sverige och Norge. Ekonomisk Debatt. ISSN 0345-2646. 8(42), p. 15–24.
• Odeck, James (2014). Do reforms reduce the magnitudes of cost overruns in road projects? Statistical evidence from Norway. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 65, p. 68–79. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2014.04.005. Show summary

  Although governments often respond to the prevalent cost overruns of transportation projects by reforming the agencies charged with overseeing the construction of projects, the transportation research literature has not provided statistical evidence as to whether such reforms assist in reducing cost overruns. This paper provides such evidence using the Norwegian road sector as a case study. The agency in question was reformed twice, from a monopolistic to a semi-monopolistic organization, and finally, to a fully competitive organization in which road construction was divided out into a separate company and privatized. In this work, we use statistical inferences to explore the related issues. The data set is composed of 1045 projects evenly distributed across the three organizational forms. The results demonstrate that the impact of the reforms has not been equal. The most important impact occurred in the final reform of full competition in which both the cost overruns and delays in construction among larger projects were greatly reduced. The second reform appears to have had a contrasting impact. For transportation research in general, we call for additional studies that will reveal the extent to which efforts carried out by governments (such as reforms) improve the efficiency of these sectors.

• Odeck, James & Engebretsen, Arild (2014). The socioeconomic impact of limiting heights of heavy vehicles-The case of Norway. Transport Policy. ISSN 0967-070X. 35, p. 127–134. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2014.04.002.
• Welde, Morten; Eliasson, Jonas; Odeck, James & Börjesson, Maria (2013). THE USE OF COST-BENEFIT ANALYSES IN NORWAY AND SWEDEN: A COMPARISON. Proceedings : European Transport Conference. ISSN 1474-9122.
• Odeck, James (2013). How accurate are national road traffic growth-rate forecasts?-The case of Norway. Transport Policy. ISSN 0967-070X. 27, p. 102–111. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2012.12.003. Show summary

  This paper evaluates the accuracy of the annual national road traffic growth-rate forecasts that are prepared by the Norwegian road authorities. The rationale for the study is the fact that national and regional traffic growth-rate forecasts are the basis for policy formation, and inaccurate forecasts may lead to inappropriate policies. The data correspond to the period of 1996–2008 whereas the forecasting models were revised in 2001. The results reveal the following: (1) traffic growth-rate forecasts were more inaccurate in the period before the revision as compared to the period after the revision and underestimation is most common; (2) the naïve growth-rate forecasts perform better than the official forecasts, but GDP growth-rate forecasts perform worse than the official forecasts; (3) the growth-rate forecasts are unbiased and efficient at the national level, but there are variations among regions and time periods. Overall, the Norwegian growth-rate forecast appears to perform fairly well in the short run, but the small inaccuracies that were observed may cause a problem in the long run, particularly in relation to the evaluation of the long-term effects of investments. We therefore advice that models need to be continually revised to accommodate more recent data such as international traffic and immigration which seem to greatly impact on the accuracy of models.

• Schøyen, Halvor & Odeck, James (2013). The technical efficiency of Norwegian container ports: A comparison to some Nordic and UK container ports using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Maritime Economics & Logistics. ISSN 1479-2931. 15(2), p. 197 –221 . doi: 10.1057/mel.2013.3. Show summary

  In this article we evaluate the technical efficiency of Norwegian container ports relative to a frontier composed of the best performing among themselves and other comparable Nordic and UK ports. The rationale is that a technical efficiency assessment of Norwegian container ports has not been found in the literature; therefore, it is unknown what their potential for improvement relative to other comparable international ports is. A Data Envelopment Analysis is used to derive the technical and scale efficiencies. The data set comprises 24 container ports, which include ports from Norway, all the Nordic countries and the United Kingdom. The primary data were derived from various issues of Containerisation International Yearbook (CIY) and cover the period of 2002–2008. Besides the efficiency analysis, an effort was made to counter-check the CIYs data with the administrations of the respective container ports. This study concludes: (1) the average potentials for technical and scale efficiency improvement across ports and improvement during the period studied are 18 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively; (2) Norwegian ports are over-performers and under-performers with regard to technical and scale efficiency, respectively; (3) for Norwegian ports to improve their overall efficiency, they need to increase their size because they are too small relative to the tasks they perform; and (4) the data from the CIYs were found to be imprecise and unreliable in some cases.

• Odeck, James & Bråthen, Svein (2012). A meta-analysis of DEA and SFA studies of the technical efficiency of seaports : a comparison of fixed and random-effects regression models. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. ISSN 0965-8564. 46(10), p. 1574–1585. doi: 10.1016/j.tra.2012.08.006. Show summary

  This paper presents a meta-analysis of variations in seaports’ Mean Technical Efficiency (MTE) scores based on 40 studies published in refereed academic journals. We link the variation in estimated MTE scores to differences in the following factors: the frontier methodology used, which essentially are the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA); regions where seaports are situated; type of data used; number of observations; and the total number of variables used. Furthermore, we compare fixed-effects against a random-effects regression model where the latter assumes that the individual study specific characteristics matter while the former assumes that there is one general tendency across all studies. We present several findings based on the data: (1) the random-effects model outperforms the fixed effects model in explaining the variations in MTEs, (2) recently published studies have lower MTE scores as compared with earlier published studies, (3) studies that used nonparametric DEA models depict higher MTE scores as compared with those that used SFA models, (4) panel data studies have lower TE scores as compared with cross-sectional data, and (5) studies using European seaport data produce lower MTE scores when compared with the rest of the world. Finally, our results contradict some previous meta-analysis studies of TE scores. We encourage the use of random- effects models in meta-analysis studies because they account for individual study specific effects.

• Merkert, Rico; Odeck, James; Bråthen, Svein & Pagliari, Romano (2012). A Review of Different Benchmarking Methods in the Context of Regional Airports. Transport reviews. ISSN 0144-1647. 32(3), p. 379–395. doi: 10.1080/01441647.2012.662707. Show summary

  This paper reviews the existing literature on airport benchmarking. In addition to assessing the advantages and disadvantages of partial productivity measures (PPM), we also discuss parametric and non-parametric methods with reference to previous applications to the airport sector. Our analytical framework for research synthesis is based on a comparative study of the existing research findings and includes not only results from longitudinal, cross-sectional and panel data analyses but also findings of our own two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) case study. Our findings suggest that the more sophisticated approaches can deliver powerful insights into the performance of regional airports. The data for such an analysis are available, yet no previous attempt has been made to apply these methods to the context of regional airports. However, challenges do exist, especially for very small airports, in terms of the reliability, quality, robustness and complexity of such an efficiency analysis. As a result we recommend that an appropriate methodology for comparing the efficiency of regional airports should be based on a combination of PPM with either a two-stage DEA or a stochastic frontier approach approach.

• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2011). The efficiency of Norwegian road toll companies. Utilities Policy. ISSN 0957-1787. 19(3), p. 162–171. doi: 10.1016/j.jup.2011.03.001.
• Schøyen, Halvor & Odeck, James (2011). Estimating the technical efficiency of Norwegian container ports relative to other Nordic and UK ones: a data envelopment analysis. In Hammervoll, Trond (Eds.), The 23rd Annual NOFOMA Conference 9–10 June 2011, Harstad, Norway: Logistics and Supply Chain Management in a High North perspective: Conference proceedings. Nordic Logistics Research Network. ISSN 8245302287. p. 1147–1164. doi: 10.1057/mel.2013.3. Show summary

  Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the technical and scale efficiencies of Norwegian container seaports as compared to other seaports in the Nordic countries and UK. Further, the patterns of operational performance and interrelationships resulting in inefficiency are explored. Design/methodology/approach Time series data on input and output variables is collected from publications, public statistics, port and company internal data and presentations, on-site visits, interviews with port managers, vessel operators and vessel officers. In total 24 seaports, six Norwegian and 18 non-Norwegian, are considered across a 7 years period ranging 2002 to 2008. The approach used for measuring efficiencies is the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Findings There is a great potential for efficiency improvement across all the seaports studied at about 18% on average whereas smaller seaports with TEU less than 100 000 seem to have even a greater potential for improvements. The mean technical efficiency scores for the group of observed Norwegian container ports are of significantly higher values compared to the group of other seaports in the Nordic countries and UK. Another interesting finding is that data for assessing efficiency of ports should not be derived uncritically from publications; they need to be verified by the port's administration. Practical implications The practical implication is that the study has increased the knowledge of port performances in Norway relative to Northern European ports. This may aid future decision making for port investments and resource allocations. Container port technical efficiency influences supply chain performances, e.g. vessel’s turnaround time in port. What is original/value of paper To our knowledge, efficiency assessment of Norwegian ports and in particular, relative to similar ports geographically, is missing in the literature of port performances. This must be seen as added value to the literature of port economics.

• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2011). Do Planners Get it Right? The Accuracy of Travel Demand Forecasting in Norway. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. ISSN 1567-7133. 11(1), p. 80–95. Full text in Research Archive
• Odeck, James & Kjerkreit, Anne (2010). Evidence on users' attitudes towards road user charges - a cross-sectional survey of six Norwegian toll schemes. Transport Policy. ISSN 0967-070X. 17(6), p. 349–358. doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2010.04.001. Show summary

  Attitudes towards road user charges have in the last decade become a focus of interest for researchers and planners in a number of disciplines including economics, transport planning and environmental sciences. Most of the literature has been based on single and/or hypothetical schemes and has a number of limitations, such as the potential differences in attitudes that might depend on whether users have actually experienced the gains of tolling are not considered. This paper gives further insight into user attitudes towards road user charges and overcomes some of the limitations observed in the literature. In particular, we examine attitudes towards six different Norwegian toll schemes with different characteristics and at different stages of implementation. The results show the following: (i) road users think negatively of tolls irrespective of the type of scheme or stage of charging; (ii) negative attitudes are highly correlated with the level of information given to users on the intentions of the tolling prior to implementation and (iii) toll levels significantly impact attitudes. Further, it is shown that attitudes vary significantly with socioeconomic characteristics. These findings demonstrate that governments need marketing strategies that clearly explain the benefits to users beforehand. Some of these strategies are proposed.

• Odeck, James & Welde, Morten (2010). Economic evaluation of intelligent transportation systems strategies: the case of the Oslo toll cordon. IET Intelligent Transport Systems. ISSN 1751-956X. 4(3), p. 221–228. doi: 10.1049/iet-its.2010.0027.
• Odeck, James (2010). What Determines Decision-Makers' Preferences for Road Investments? Evidence from the Norwegian Road Sector. Transport reviews. ISSN 0144-1647. 30(4), p. 473–494. doi: 10.1080/01441640903138640. Show summary

  What determines decision-makers' preferences for road projects has been a subject of debate in the transport economics literature for decades. Because economic assessments of road projects are conducted subject to demands by decision-makers in almost all western European countries and the USA, it should be expected that they use these assessments in one way or another to determine the preferred portfolios of projects. This paper attempts to reveal the preference of decision-makers with respect to road investment projects to be included in the Norwegian National Transport Plan for the period 2002-11. The decision-makers are the Norwegian parliament members. The basis for considering each individual project for investment is the Impact Assessment sheet containing monetized and non-monetized impacts that will accrue to society if a project is implemented. The dataset comprises a pool of 1121 independent projects, of which 184 were selected for investment. We hypothesize different models that may explain decision-making using a multinomial logit model. The preferred model shows that most of the variables determining decisions are actually included in the traditional benefit-cost analyses (BCAs), except that the decision-maker takes account of them in non-monetary units rather than in a composite benefit-cost ratio or net present value. Further, among the government's three stated objectives of efficiency, safety and regional development, only safety is found to be significant in the preferred model. These results support other previous studies to the extent that a BCA per se does not matter in decision-making, but its components matter in a non-monetized form.

• Odeck, James; Hagen, Trine & Fearnley, Nils (2010). Economic appraisal of universal design in transport: Experiences from Norway. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 29(1), p. 304–311. doi: 10.1016/j.retrec.2010.07.038. Show summary

  Economic assessment of universally designed transport projects has not been studied in depth in the transport planning literature. Universal Design (UD) refers to the design of transport systems in a way that they are accessible to all users, irrespective of the users’ abilities. This definition of UD has not yet gained roots in the transport economic literature. The conventional thinking is that UD is for the few, i.e., the impaired, and given that they are few in numbers, UD projects will generally be unprofitable from a socioeconomic point of view because benefits will be low while investment costs will be too high. The objective of this paper is to prove the opposite: UD projects benefit all users of the facility, whether impaired or not, and the additional costs of implementing them are generally low; hence, their net present values are high and positive. We build on collaborative work between the Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA) and the Institute of Transport Economics (TOI) aimed at creating guidelines for assessing the economic merits of UD projects. Therefore, in this paper, we: (1) define how UD is to be understood in the context of road and public transport; (2) describe the types of benefits and costs that accrue to users if UD projects are implemented; (3) address how the benefits and cost can be valued in monetary terms; and (4) using three different types of projects, demonstrate that UD projects are surprisingly profitable from a socioeconomic point of view. Finally, we address the implications of our findings and explain why governments need to be concerned with UD of transport systems.

• Odeck, James (2009). Statistical precision of DEA and Malmquist indices: A bootstrap application to Norwegian grain producers. Omega. The International Journal of Management Science. ISSN 0305-0483. 37(5), p. 1007–1017. Show summary

  Previous applications of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and its subsequent Malmquist indices to efficiency and productivity measurements have been criticised for not providing statistical inferences regarding the significance of observed results. In this paper, DEA and a Malmquist index are combined with a bootstrap method in order to provide succinct statistical inferences that determine the performance of grain producers in Eastern Norway. The data cover the period between 1987 and 1997. Results reveal: (i) a significant degree of inefficiency (approximately 11%) and an average productivity progress of 38% over the period considered; (ii) the formidable productivity progress observed is primarily explained by technical efficiency changes that enabled producers to catch up with front runners; and (iii) environmental factors, such as weather conditions, impact both efficiency and productivity. Finally, the analysis reveals that using bootstrapping to make statistical inferences suggests that researchers should be careful in making performance comparisons based on conventional DEA methods, as any discovered differences may not be significant.

• Bråthen, Svein & Odeck, James (2009). Road Funding in Norway: Experiences and Perspectives. International Journal of Sustainable Transportation. ISSN 1556-8318. 3(5-6), p. 373–388. doi: 10.1080/15568310802260039. Show summary

  Since 1934, Norway has made use of toll financing of road infrastructure. The toll road system has a mixture of urban cordon toll rings, tolled fjord crossings, tolled motorways, and tolled public-private partnerships (PPPs). This paper begins by providing an overview of the various toll road projects and the planning framework and toll financing regime in Norway. Then it summarizes evidence on the demand effects of road tolls for a representative selection of projects. Finally it discusses the socioeconomic efficiency of toll funding vis-à-vis conventional public funding.

• Odeck, James & Bråthen, Svein (2009). The efficiency of Norwegian ferries in providing public transport services. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT ECONOMICS. ISSN 0303-5247. 36(1), p. 121–139.
• Odeck, James (2009). Statistical precision of DEA and Malmquist indices: A bootstrap application to Norwegian grain producers. Omega. The International Journal of Management Science. ISSN 0305-0483. 37(5), p. 1007–1017. doi: 10.1016/j.omega.2008.11.003.
• Odeck, James (2008). Efficiency measurement of ferries serving road networks in Norway : a stochastic frontier approach. Maritime Economics & Logistics. ISSN 1479-2931. 10(4), p. 409–428. Show summary

  This paper analyses the performance of ferries operating along the Norwegian road networks. These ferries are of critical importance to the trunk road system, as they act as links in the road system by transporting vehicles across fjords. However, ferries are subsidised by the government because they operate at a loss. It is therefore important for governmental agencies to assess the performance in order to understand the potential for efficiency and productivity improvements (eg, by implementing alternative subsidy regimes). The performance of ferries (ie, technical efficiency and productivity) is estimated using the stochastic frontier approach to efficiency measurement and its subsequent Malmquist productivity indices. Technical inefficiency effects are modelled as ferry-specific external factors (eg, areas of operation or year of construction). The data are from the accounting period 2003-2005 and are comprised of 82 ferries. The results show that there is great potential for efficiency improvements among ferries, in the range of 19-20%. The external factors have a significant impact on efficiency, as the productivity of ferries has increased by approximately 2% over the period studied and this progress is mainly due to advances in efficiency changes. This means that ferries generally have a tendency to improve their efficiency, but fail to adopt technologies for the reason that they are too old. These results should be valuable for policy decisions. The Norwegian government is currently considering tendering as a means of improving efficiency in the ferry sector. We advise that a change in the subsidy system alone is not enough to ensure efficiency improvements, unless incentives for investments in new ferries are included

• Odeck, James & Bray, David (2008). Analytical and institutional methods and frameworks. Research in Transportation Economics. ISSN 0739-8859. 22(1), p. 41–44. Show summary

  This chapter presents a summary of the findings of the workshop on 'Analytical and Institutional Methods and Frameworks'. The paper discusses the nature of the analytical methods used in the papers presented and the purposes for which they were employed, which were generally to either assist in the planning and operation of public transport or to monitor the efficiency and effectiveness of transport services. Subsequent sections examine issues related to data collection and management, and the more general issue of institutional arrangements. Policy and research agendas needed to support further consideration of the subject are then identified

• Odeck, James (2008). How efficient and productive are road toll companies? Evidence from Norway. Transport Policy. ISSN 0967-070X. 15(4), p. 232–241. Show summary

  This article evaluates the technical efficiency of toll companies, i.e., how toll companies perform relative to each other, their productivity, and whether toll companies improve their efficiency from one year to the next relative to the best performers. The rationale for this study is that Norwegian road toll companies have been criticized for not being as efficient as they should; it has been claimed that some have very large operational costs compared to their peers and hence are inefficient. The framework for analysis is Data Envelopment Analysis and its subsequent Malmquist Productivity indices. The data are from the accounting period of 2001-2004 and contain information on 18 companies. The results show that: (1) there is a potential for efficiency increases of about 14%, (2) there are economies of scale in the industry in that larger companies (as measured by number of lanes served) tend to be more efficient compared to smaller companies, and (3) there has been a productivity increase in the sector of about 1%, and this progress is due more to companies employing a newer and more effective method for collecting funds and less to improving efficiency from one year to the next. Finally, these findings suggest that the Norwegian road authorities should consider reorganizing the toll sector such that the inherent economies of scale are utilized. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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• Odeck, James Oyugi; Börjesson, Maria; Hammes, Johanna Jussila; Volden, Gro Holst & Welde, Morten (2023). Hva kjennetegner samfunnsøkonomisk lønnsomme vegprosjekter? En analyse basert på data fra nasjonale transportplaner i Norge og Sverige. Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet. ISBN 9788284330341. 86 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Odeck, James & Welde, Morten (2015). Ressursbruk i transportsektoren – noen mulige forbedringer. Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet. ISBN 978-82-93253-42-6. 264 p. Full text in Research Archive
• Welde, Morten; Eliasson, Jonas; Odeck, James & Börjesson, Maria (2013). Planprosesser,beregningsverktøy og bruk av nytte- kostnadsanalyser i vegsektor En sammenligning av praksis i Norge og Sverige. Ex Ante akademisk forlag Trondheim. ISBN 978-82-93253-15-0. 83 p.

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• Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind & Odeck, James Oyugi (2024). Nytte-kostnadsanalyser: Hvor usikre er resultatene? Moderne Mobilitet og Infrastruktur. ISSN 2704-1514. 2(1).
• Tveter, Eivind; Welde, Morten & Odeck, James Oyugi (2024). Usikkerhet i nytte-kostnadsanalyser.
• Tveter, Eivind; Welde, Morten & Odeck, James Oyugi (2023). Usikkerhet i nytte-kostnadsanalyser  .
• Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind & Odeck, James Oyugi (2023). The Uncertainty of Cost-Benefit Analyses .
• Aasness, Marie Aarestrup & Odeck, James (2022). Determinants of road users' experiences of congestion.
• Odeck, James; Börjesson, Maria; Hammes, Johanna Jussila; Volden, Gro Holst & Welde, Morten (2022). Identifying indicators for value for money in the front-end of road projects: Using National Transport Plan data from Norway and Sweden.
• Hammes, Johanna Jussila; Volden, Gro Holst; Welde, Morten; Börjesson, Maria & Odeck, James (2022). Finding transport projects with high value for money – what are the socio-geographic determinants?
• Hammes, Johanna Jussila; Volden, Gro Holst; Welde, Morten; Börjesson, Maria & Odeck, James (2021). Finding transport projects with high value for money: what are the socio-geographic determinants? Working Papers, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI). Show summary

  We use cost-benefit data from 1052 projects in Norway and Sweden to analyse ex ante factors that can explain which characteristics of transport infrastructure projects explain high value for money. The aim is to identify characteristics that can be used in assessments of projects before a cost-benefit analysis is feasible. We find that in Norway, road toll financing is a good indicator of high value projects, especially in the poorer municipalities. In Sweden, co-financing serves to raise investment volumes, but tends to lead to worse value for money. In Sweden, congestion seems to be the biggest problem in medium-income municipalities, while there are traffic safety benefits to be obtained in the rural areas. A higher initial capacity on a link raises both benefits and costs, and costs are higher in more densely populated areas in both countries. We find diminishing economies of scale in Norway and increasing economies of scale in Sweden.

• Odeck, James & Welde, Morten (2021). Cost Overruns of Transportation Infrastructure Projects. In Vickerman, Roger (Eds.), International Encyclopedia of Transportation. Elsevier. ISSN 9780081026717. p. 483–489. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-08-102671-7.10089-2. Show summary

  What is a cost overrun of a transportation project? What problems does it cause? How should overruns be measured? How common and prevalent are overruns worldwide? What are the potential ways of avoiding overruns? These are the questions that we address in this paper, and the rationale is to provide a brief and comprehensive overview of all of these topics. We show different measures for overruns and recommend when and why they are useful. Furthermore, we rebuff earlier findings that cost overruns are more prevalent than underruns. Finally, we argue that, among several potential measures proposed in the literature to eradicate overruns, quality assurance of estimates is one of the most effective measures.

• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2021). The Robustness of Cost–Benefit Analyses. In Vickerman, Roger (Eds.), International Encyclopedia of Transportation. Elsevier. ISSN 9780081026717. p. 249–255. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-08-102671-7.10048-X. Show summary

  In this chapter we address the robustness of cost–benefit analysis (CBA) from the perspective of its usefulness for decision-making. After summarizing how CBAs are preformed, we provide an example of how uncertainties in its parameters may jeopardize its usefulness as a decision-making tool. We also elaborate on how the robustness of CBAs is contextual, depending on what they are expected to serve, together with the fact that CBAs are either ex-ante or ex-post. More generally, the chapter provides an overview of the inherent uncertainties in CBAs. Major sources of uncertainties in CBAs are addressed and we point out that the robustness of CBAs can be improved by performing ex-post evaluations. Additionally, the issue of the robustness of CBAs in a future perspective is addressed.

• Graae, Bente Jessen; Nielsen, Martin Reinhardt; Kløckner, Christian; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Moe, Espen & Said, Mohammed Yahya [Show all 15 contributors for this article] (2019). Savanna Life (brettspill/serious game).
• Odeck, James Oyugi (2018). Efficiency and productivity in the transportation sector. Research in Transportation Business and Management (RTBM). ISSN 2210-5395. 28, p. 1–2. doi: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2019.01.004.
• Tveter, Eivind & Odeck, James (2018). How to implement wider economic impacts in transport appraisals? A review of the Norwegian experience.
• Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind & Odeck, James (2018). The accuracy of traffic forecasts for fixed link projects : an empirical study of Norwegian bridges and tunnels. European Transport Conference past papers repository. ISSN 2313-1853. p. 1–15. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper studies the accuracy of traffic forecasts for fixed link projects in Norway. During the last four decades, the Norwegian government has invested substantial resources in projects that have replaced ferry connections with fixed links. The direct impact for road users have been reduced travel costs, with a resulting increase in traffic. This paper investigates the short-run forecast accuracy and long-run traffic effects. Traffic forecasts are an essential element in road project appraisals. The forecasts are used to estimate the user benefits of new schemes and to make sure that the new road will have the necessary capacity to cope with future demand. A number of studies have demonstrated that despite progress in developing more sophisticated transport models, traffic forecasts remain a major source of uncertainty in appraisal. Forecasting the traffic effects from fixed links is challenging. While most road projects only deliver marginal time-savings - reductions in travel time of more than 15 minutes are uncommon, fixed links can have a far greater impact. In some cases, new roads may deliver significant reductions in generalised costs and may substantially change travel patterns. Fixed link projects, i.e. bridges and tunnels to replace ferry connections, may reduce travel times across fjords and from island communities to the mainland by more than 30 minutes as well as giving round-the-clock access to national and international markets. These projects have the potential to deliver a wide range of regional impacts, such as improved market access, entry of firms, increased competition, access to a wider range of goods and services, and changes in settlement patterns. This makes forecasting more challenging than in projects were changes in travel time are more marginal. Fixed link projects are technically demanding and requires huge investments. The planning and appraisal of new projects must therefore consider the historical performance of past projects. Even if fixed links may be considered somewhat exotic, several bridge and tunnel projects are currently being considered, planned and implemented in a number of European countries. If built, they will rank among the most iconic mega-structures in our transport system. The paper is based on data from tunnels and bridges opened for traffic from 1970 to 2013. For 23 of the projects we have access to both forecasted and real traffic and only real traffic for a further 15. We first compare traffic forecasts for the first five years of operation with real traffic We then compare traffic in the last year of ferry operations to that on the fixed link. Finally, we examine if the traffic growth in these projects have been larger than the traffic growth on other roads. Better knowledge of these mechanisms is relevant not just to fixed link projects, but to anyone planning roads that may deliver large reductions in travel time. The paper is based on a study completed in December 2017 and the results have not yet been presented to an international audience.

• Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind & Odeck, James Oyugi (2018). Kraftig trafikkvekst når ferjer får avløsning. Samferdsel. ISSN 0332-8988.
• Skjetne, Eirik; Odeck, James Oyugi; Mwakilema, William; Joseph, Michael; Díez Gutiérrez, María & Tørset, Trude (2017). Chapter four: Transport System. In Fyumagwa, Robert D.; Mfunda, Iddi Mihijai; Ntalwila, Janemary & Røskaft, Eivin (Ed.), Northern Serengeti Road Ecology. Fagbokforlaget. ISSN 978-82-450-2359-6. p. 82–103.
• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2017). Trafikkprognoser i bompengeprosjekter: Bedre i Norge enn i mange andre land. Samferdsel. ISSN 0332-8988.
• Tveter, Eivind; Welde, Morten & Odeck, James Oyugi (2016). Ferjeavløsning kan påvirke bosetting positivt – spesielt nær byområder. Samferdsel. ISSN 0332-8988.
• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2016). God kostnadskontroll, men hyppige kostnadsøkninger i tidligfasen. Samferdsel. ISSN 0332-8988.
• Díez Gutiérrez, María; Tørset, Trude; Skjetne, Eirik; Odeck, James & Røskaft, Eivin (2015). Small scale transport modelling: the case of a road through Serengeti National Park in Tanzania.
• Odeck, James & Welde, Morten (2015). The Impact of External Quality Assurance on Cost Overruns of Road Projects.
• Svendsen, Hilde Johanne; Hervik, Arild & Odeck, James (2015). Does outsourcing of tendering processes in public transit enhance technical efficiency.
• Welde, Morten; Odeck, James & Saxebøl, Geir (2015). The Impact of Cost Estimation Methodologies on Cost Overruns.
• Welde, Morten; Odeck, James & Saxebøl, Geir (2015). Cost Increases in the Front-End of Road Projects.
• Odeck, James & Sandvik, Edvard Thonstad (2015). Does competition improve technical efficiency of transportation services? : a DEA application in the case of Norwegian car ferry sector. Show summary

  Economic theory suggests that competition enhances efficiency by which transportation services are provided. We test the validity of this theory using the Norwegian car ferry links whereas ferry links connect trunk road segments by transporting cars from one road and to the other. Traditionally, the ferry link services were provided by monopolists subsidized by the government based on long term cost norms. Currently, ferry link services are gradually being exposed to competitive tendering (CT). We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure how ferry links perform and test whether the links that have been exposed to CT perform better than others. The results reveal that: (1) Exposure to competitive tendering enhances efficiency; (2) there are large potentials for technical efficiency improvement in the Norwegian of about 23-33% and; (3) exogenous factors outside the control of the ferry link management impact efficiency significantly. We urge the government to speed up competitive tendering.

• Svendsen, Hilde Johanne; Hervik, Arild & Odeck, James (2015). Norwegian bus transport - Does internal or external organization of public authorities affect efficiency. Show summary

  This topic addresses how to organize the processes of competitive tendering of bus transport in public sector. The question of internal or external organization will be discussed in all Norwegian counties when the procurement process for bus transport goes from negotiations to competitive tendering. In internal organization the competitive tendering process is performed by a department at the county authorities, while external organization is when the county authorities establish an external unit to take care of the competitive tendering process. The necessary data was collected from the public transport authorities. This study was made with all Norwegian counties as population, and Data Envelop Analysis (DEA) and 2nd stage regression was applied. Passenger kilometer was used as main output. The number of passengers was also tested as output. Labour, capital and energy were used as input variables. Population density, degree of competitive tendering and internal/external organization were the 2nd stage explanatory variables. At the outset, the result tends to explain that the lower degree of competitive tendering that is applied in a county, the more efficient is the county performing. When the variables for Density, number of inhabitants per kilometer of public road are included, the result turns out as opposite and the model tends to explain that higher density gives higher efficiency in the counties in question. For the main variable Organization, the model explains that external organization is more efficient than internal organization within a 10 per cent significance level. As use of DEA is sensitive to outlayers in the population, there were made an analysis where Oslo, the capital in Norway, and Akershus were not a part of the population. By use of this sensitivity analysis the findings suggest that a differentiated practice between rural and urban areas could be implemented.

• Odeck, James; Sandvik, Edvard & Bråthen, Svein (2015). Does competition improve technical efficiency of transportation services? : a DEA application in the case of Norwegian car ferry sector . Show summary

  Economic theory suggests that competition enhances efficiency by which transportation services are provided. We test the validity of this theory using the Norwegian car ferry links whereas ferry links connect trunk road segments by transporting cars from one road and to the other. Traditionally, the ferry link services were provided by monopolists subsidized by the government based on long term cost norms. Currently, ferry link services are gradually being exposed to competitive tendering (CT). We use Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure how ferry links perform and test whether the links that have been exposed to CT perform better than others. The results reveal that: (1) Exposure to competitive tendering enhances efficiency; (2) there are large potentials for technical efficiency improvement in the Norwegian of about 23-33% and; (3) exogenous factors outside the control of the ferry link management impact efficiency significantly. We urge the government to speed up competitive tendering.

• Bråthen, Svein; Khazraeianvafadar, Mozhgan & Odeck, James (2015). Airport efficiency and energy use. Show summary

  This study has evaluated the effect of energy use on the efficiency of 28 Norwegian airports by applying the two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis for 2009 to 2013. Energy use is considered as one of the inputs in a production function along with other factors like employment, runway length and size of the terminal buildings. Air cargo volume, aircraft movements and the annual number of passengers are considered as output factors. The results indicate that including energy use as input can affect the airports' technical efficiency considerably. Moreover, significant effects of external factors to the airport operations such as airport size, the location of the airport and age of the terminal building are found. The scale efficiency of the airports implies that most of the Norwegian airports are not performing at their optimal scale. This study suggests that since energy use can affect the airport efficiency, it is recommended to be considered as one of the inputs in measuring airport efficiency. The lack of relevant input factors in a DEA, like energy use, may be confused with lack of efficiency.

• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2014). Cost increases in the front-end of Norwegian road projects.
• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2013). The use of cost-benefit analyses in Norway and Sweden: a comparison.
• Schøyen, Halvor & Odeck, James (2011). Estimating the technical efficiency of Norwegian container ports relative to other Nordic and UK ones: a data envelopment analysis.
• Merkert, Rico; Pagliari, Romano; Bråthen, Svein & Odeck, James (2011). The use of econometric methods for efficiency analysis of regional airports - a meta analysis.
• Chaudhry, Muhammad Omer; Bråthen, Svein & Odeck, James (2011). Impact of transport infrastructure on economic development : a comparative analysis. Show summary

  Investment in infrastructure especially in transport infrastructure is concidered cruical factor in the growth of countries. Recently, there have been a number of studies to explore the impact of investment in transport infrastructure on growth of countries. The main hypothesis of such studies is that the infrastructure spendings on transport is of fundamental importance in growth of economies and such investments should be sustained even in the financial crisis when governments cut their expenditures. In literature, there are many examples of studies exploring such relationship on regional and national level however, there is not much evidence of any cross country comparison dealing with the impact of transport infrastructure on growth of nations. Therefore, it is hard to generalize the results derived from one particular region or country because of diversity in the geographical, economic, social and political characteristics of countries. Furthermore, the impact of additional investment in transport infrastructure may vary among developed and developing countries. This paper has the objective of supplementing and widening transportation research on the impact of transport infrastructure on the development of nations. Furthermore, this study also analyze different methodologies being used for efficiency measurement. The performance of nations (i.e., efficiency and productivity) is estimated by parametric as well as non parametric approaches i.e. Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to efficiency measurement. This analysis is comprised of to stages. In the first stage, efficiency of nations is calculated (by individually using both the techniques) with GDP as the output and labor and capital as inputs. While in the second stage, factors thought to influence (in) efficiency e.g. the investment in transport infrastructure, extent of economic develpoment, access to hub airport and ports and demographic characteristics (such as percentage of rural population, literacy rate etc.) are regressed on the efficiency scores attained in the first stage. The results obtained by two different techniques are then analyzed and compared. There is a possibility to extend the analysis by using the statistical techniques such as the F-test, the Mann-Whitney tests to analyze the differences on the impact of transportation investment on growth between groups of countries. This paper uses the data for 2000-2004 and is comprised of 36 developed and developing countries located in Asia, Africa and Europe. Mainly the data bases of IMF and World Bank are used to obtain the data.

• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2011). Transportplanlegging: Mangelfulle analyser, men tegn på god norsk praksis. Samferdsel. ISSN 0332-8988. p. 10–11.
• Odeck, James (2010). Samfunnsøkonomiske analyser holder høy internasjonal standard. Samferdsel. ISSN 0332-8988. p. 16–17.
• Odeck, James (2010). Do cost overruns of road projects improve after reorganization? Empirical evidence from Norway.
• Odeck, James; Kjerkreit, Anne & Martinsen, Jan A. (2010). Why benefit-cost analysis matters less and how it can be improved for decision making in the transport sector – Experiences from the Norwegian National Transport Plan 2010 -2019.
• Odeck, James (2009). The efficiency of road toll companies : the case of Norway.
• Welde, Morten & Odeck, James (2009). Automatisering av bomringen i Oslo : et lønnsømt ITS-tiltak! Samferdsel. ISSN 0332-8988. 48(4), p. 4–5.
• Larsen, Odd I.; Odeck, James & Kjerkreit, Anne (2009). The economic impact of axle-load control of heavy vehicles in developing countries - the case of Zambia.
• Tveter, Eivind; Welde, Morten & Odeck, James Oyugi (2023). Usikkerhet i nyttekostnadsanalyser. Norges teknisk- naturvitenskapelige universitet. Full text in Research Archive
• Said, Mohammed Yahya; Kifugo, Shem; Kija, Hamza; Ojwang, Gordon; Ojwala, Merceline & May, Roelof Frans [Show all 14 contributors for this article] (2019). Deliverable 2.1. Quantitative modelling of land use. AfricanBioServices.
• Næss, Petter; Volden, Gro Holst; Odeck, James & Richardson, Timothy Kevin (2017). Neglected and underestimated negative impacts of transport investments. Ex Ante Academic Publisher, The Concept research program. ISSN 978-82-93253-65-5.
• Welde, Morten; Tveter, Eivind & Odeck, James (2017). Trafikkprognoser og trafikkutvikling i ferjeavløsningsprosjekter. NTNU - Norges teknisk-naturvitenskapelige universitet. Full text in Research Archive
• Merkert, Rico; Pagliari, Romano; Odeck, James; Bråthen, Svein; Halpern, Nigel & Husdal, Jan (2010). Benchmarking Avinor’s efficiency ‐ a prestudy. Møreforsking Molde. ISSN 9788278301487. Show summary

  This report investigates ways of benchmarking Avinor’s efficiency as an airport and air traffic service provider, up against an international sample of airports. The report recommends the following approach for a benchmarking study: 1. An internal benchmarking study of Avinor’s airports, where one could apply a Partial Productivity Measures (PPM) study and/or a 2‐stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) study. 2. A PPM comparison between a selection of Avinor’s airports and a number of comparable international airports. 3. A 2‐stage DEA analysis on a larger set of airports. Data from around 150 airports in Northern Europe would be available. We would like to recommend the third approach, however with the option to limit the study to the first and second approach.

• Larsen, Odd I.; Odeck, James & Kjerkreit, Anne (2008). The economic impact of enforcing axle load regulation : the case of Zambia. Møreforsking Molde / Statens vegvesen. ISSN 978-82-7830-129-6. Show summary

  This study is an economic assessment of regulating and enforcing axle load control of heavy vehicles in Zambia. This enforcement is part of a wider Axle Load Control Programme to prevent premature deterioration of roads and bridges, implemented in 2004 with a time frame of fours years. Among the many objectives of the programme, a new regulation pertaining to maximum permissible axle loads and gross vehicle mass (GVM) was approved in 2007 and included in the Roads Act. Efficient enforcement of axle load regulations will have two major impacts: (1) Heavy axles (as measured by GVM) inflict an excessive cost in terms of wear and tear on the roads. They may cause additional damage to bridges and impede the safety of traffic. Thus, efficient axle load regulation will lead to a reduction in maintenance cost to the road keeper, i.e., the government. (2) On the other hand, enforcing a strict regulation will imply that excessive payload on overloaded vehicles must be transported by additional vehicles and hence increase vehicle-kilometres driven by heavy vehicles. These added vehiclekilometres will increase the cost of moving any given volume of goods for road hauliers. The costs associated with this second impact may to some extent counteract the gains associated with reduced wear and tear on roads. The economic assessment has therefore focused on these two major impacts, rather than on the total Axle Load Programme per se. The results of this study are: The enforcement of the axle load regulations will lead to savings in the cost of road maintenance for the road keeper (the Zambian government). The savings will be manifested in longer time intervals between rehabilitation of different road segments. The average annual savings are estimated to be of the order US $4-4.1 million per year. Discounted over 15 years with 6 per cent rate of interest, this amounts to a present value of US $41 million. Thus, in terms of future savings in road maintenance, the programme is profitable. However, the estimated increase in annual road haulage cost is estimated to be of the order of 12-13 million US $, i.e. about three times the savings in road maintenance. Excluding transit traffic, the added cost of road haulage is a cost to producers and consumers in Zambia. The current GVM limit of 56 tonnes is an improvement over the limit of 55 tonnes. The 12-13 million US $ represent potential savings from increasing the GVM limit even further, to the more realistic 60 tonnes. The main reason for the high increase in the cost of road haulage is the GVM regulation. The regulation effectively constrains payload per trip for heavy goods vehicles. The weight of very heavy goods vehicles generally exceeds the recently approved GVM limit of 56 tonnes before the axle load restrictions come into force. Thus, the GVM regulation by itself has a negligible impact on road wear when the axle load regulations are efficiently enforced. The newly approved maximum GVM of 56 tonnes is expensive for Zambia in terms of transport costs, although it is an improvement over the previous regulation of 55 tonnes. However, it is worth noting that the limit is set regionally by SADCC, mainly as precaution for bridges, and not by Zambia alone. Because a higher GVM limit would be less expensive, the proposal to gradually increase the limit is a move in the right direction ... (sterkt forkortet)

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